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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03+7.30vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.30+1.41vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.75+1.51vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77+2.98vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.20+1.17vs Predicted
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6North Carolina State University1.26+3.56vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.09-0.37vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.02-1.21vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76-0.39vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont-0.13+3.70vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.09-1.49vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University0.49-0.15vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University0.95-1.93vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-4.96vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University-0.84-2.48vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin0.70-4.43vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-4.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.035.1%1st Place
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3.41Stanford University3.3024.1%1st Place
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4.51Dartmouth College2.7514.8%1st Place
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6.98Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.776.3%1st Place
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6.17Georgetown University2.208.9%1st Place
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9.56North Carolina State University1.263.9%1st Place
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6.63Boston College2.097.5%1st Place
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6.79Tulane University2.027.2%1st Place
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8.61St. Mary's College of Maryland1.765.1%1st Place
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13.7University of Vermont-0.130.9%1st Place
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9.51University of South Florida1.093.3%1st Place
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11.85Roger Williams University0.492.2%1st Place
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11.07Old Dominion University0.952.6%1st Place
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9.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.973.8%1st Place
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12.52Christopher Newport University-0.841.1%1st Place
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11.57University of Wisconsin0.701.9%1st Place
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12.76U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.291.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Bornarth | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 24.1% | 20.3% | 16.4% | 12.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 14.8% | 13.9% | 15.4% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Piper Holthus | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Sowa | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 2.2% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Samantha Gardner | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Madison Bashaw | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 15.6% | 31.2% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 1.8% |
| Katherine McGagh | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 13.9% | 11.8% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 6.7% |
| Heather Kerns | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| Laura Smith | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 15.3% | 15.8% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 9.5% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 15.2% | 17.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.