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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.75+3.27vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.30+1.48vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77+3.83vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University0.95+6.86vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03+2.92vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.09+0.62vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University0.49+4.85vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.20-2.13vs Predicted
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9Tulane University2.02-2.47vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76-1.28vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University-0.84+1.24vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.56-0.22vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin0.70-1.80vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University1.26-4.66vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-2.44vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida1.09-6.68vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont-0.13-3.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.27Dartmouth College2.7518.4%1st Place
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3.48Stanford University3.3022.9%1st Place
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6.83Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.776.6%1st Place
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10.86Old Dominion University0.952.5%1st Place
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7.92U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.035.5%1st Place
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6.62Boston College2.097.3%1st Place
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11.85Roger Williams University0.491.1%1st Place
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5.87Georgetown University2.2010.6%1st Place
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6.53Tulane University2.027.3%1st Place
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8.72St. Mary's College of Maryland1.763.9%1st Place
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12.24Christopher Newport University-0.841.6%1st Place
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11.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.561.7%1st Place
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11.2University of Wisconsin0.701.8%1st Place
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9.34North Carolina State University1.263.1%1st Place
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12.56U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.291.1%1st Place
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9.32University of South Florida1.093.8%1st Place
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13.59University of Vermont-0.130.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddie Hawkins | 18.4% | 14.2% | 14.4% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 22.9% | 20.4% | 15.8% | 12.5% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 6.2% |
| Emily Bornarth | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Katherine McGagh | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 9.4% |
| Piper Holthus | 10.6% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Samantha Gardner | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Laura Smith | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 13.5% | 15.8% |
| Brook Wood | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 10.3% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 7.2% |
| Olivia Sowa | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 2.1% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 14.1% | 16.4% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 15.2% | 29.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.