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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.20+5.04vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.75+2.39vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03+5.10vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.09+2.59vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont-0.13+8.37vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+2.45vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.30-3.51vs Predicted
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8North Carolina State University1.26+1.21vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida1.09+0.54vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University0.49+1.94vs Predicted
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11Tulane University2.02-4.45vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77-5.31vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University0.95-2.12vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.56-2.29vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University-0.84-2.84vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin0.70-4.55vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-4.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.04Georgetown University2.209.0%1st Place
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4.39Dartmouth College2.7516.0%1st Place
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8.1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.035.3%1st Place
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6.59Boston College2.097.7%1st Place
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13.37University of Vermont-0.131.0%1st Place
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8.45St. Mary's College of Maryland1.764.6%1st Place
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3.49Stanford University3.3023.4%1st Place
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9.21North Carolina State University1.263.1%1st Place
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9.54University of South Florida1.093.1%1st Place
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11.94Roger Williams University0.491.2%1st Place
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6.55Tulane University2.027.2%1st Place
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6.69Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.778.2%1st Place
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10.88Old Dominion University0.952.8%1st Place
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11.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.561.8%1st Place
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12.16Christopher Newport University-0.841.7%1st Place
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11.45University of Wisconsin0.702.4%1st Place
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12.44U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.291.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 16.0% | 16.4% | 14.2% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Bornarth | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 14.6% | 26.9% |
| Madison Bashaw | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 23.4% | 18.1% | 16.5% | 14.1% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Sowa | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 1.7% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| Katherine McGagh | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 11.8% |
| Samantha Gardner | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.0% |
| Brook Wood | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 10.8% |
| Laura Smith | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 12.8% | 14.1% |
| Mary Castellini | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 7.9% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 14.4% | 16.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.