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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.40+4.83vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University1.97+4.16vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.64+1.85vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.85+6.44vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.63+1.93vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+4.74vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida1.54+1.56vs Predicted
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8Tulane University1.73-0.74vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont0.48+2.56vs Predicted
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10North Carolina State University1.09-1.89vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University1.86-4.17vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.61-1.19vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College1.60-5.50vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.65-2.56vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin0.36-3.27vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University0.68-5.40vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-3.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.83Boston College2.4011.4%1st Place
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6.16Roger Williams University1.979.2%1st Place
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4.85Stanford University2.6415.4%1st Place
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10.44U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.853.0%1st Place
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6.93Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.638.5%1st Place
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10.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.912.6%1st Place
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8.56University of South Florida1.545.2%1st Place
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7.26Tulane University1.737.0%1st Place
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11.56University of Vermont0.482.1%1st Place
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8.11North Carolina State University1.097.0%1st Place
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6.83Georgetown University1.869.3%1st Place
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10.81St. Mary's College of Maryland0.612.8%1st Place
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7.5Dartmouth College1.607.6%1st Place
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11.44Christopher Newport University0.652.6%1st Place
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11.73University of Wisconsin0.362.1%1st Place
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10.6Old Dominion University0.682.9%1st Place
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13.65U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.101.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michaela O'Brien | 11.4% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Lucy Meagher | 9.2% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Hannah Freeman | 15.4% | 14.1% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Julia Conneely | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 6.1% |
| Lucy Brock | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 6.8% |
| Eden Nykamp | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| Caroline Benson | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Audrey Commerford | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 13.4% | 12.4% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Kelly Bates | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Lily Flack | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 5.9% |
| Taylor Eastman | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 10.8% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 14.5% |
| Megan Geith | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.7% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 16.3% | 31.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.