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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.40+4.82vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.85+8.23vs Predicted
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3North Carolina State University1.09+5.21vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland0.61+6.52vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.63+1.82vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont0.48+5.75vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.64-2.13vs Predicted
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8Tulane University1.73-0.67vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+1.68vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University0.65+1.31vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University0.68-0.35vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University1.86-4.99vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University1.97-6.88vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College1.60-6.35vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida1.54-6.30vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin0.36-4.26vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-3.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.82Boston College2.4012.2%1st Place
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10.23U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.853.1%1st Place
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8.21North Carolina State University1.095.9%1st Place
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10.52St. Mary's College of Maryland0.612.9%1st Place
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6.82Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.639.1%1st Place
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11.75University of Vermont0.482.5%1st Place
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4.87Stanford University2.6415.0%1st Place
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7.33Tulane University1.737.0%1st Place
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10.68Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.913.1%1st Place
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11.31Christopher Newport University0.652.4%1st Place
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10.65Old Dominion University0.682.2%1st Place
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7.01Georgetown University1.868.1%1st Place
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6.12Roger Williams University1.9710.9%1st Place
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7.65Dartmouth College1.606.9%1st Place
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8.7University of South Florida1.545.0%1st Place
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11.74University of Wisconsin0.362.6%1st Place
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13.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.101.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michaela O'Brien | 12.2% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Julia Conneely | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 4.5% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Lily Flack | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 6.2% |
| Lucy Brock | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Audrey Commerford | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 13.0% | 12.8% |
| Hannah Freeman | 15.0% | 13.8% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Benson | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 6.5% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 10.0% |
| Megan Geith | 2.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 6.4% |
| Kelly Bates | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Lucy Meagher | 10.9% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Taylor Eastman | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Eden Nykamp | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 14.1% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 14.5% | 34.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.