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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University1.09+7.31vs Predicted
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2Tulane University1.73+5.31vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.40+2.81vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida1.54+4.63vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.64-0.24vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University1.86+0.80vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.63-0.19vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University0.65+3.21vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin0.36+2.74vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University1.97-3.77vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University0.68-0.15vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College1.60-4.35vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.85-2.79vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-3.11vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.48-3.33vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland0.61-5.48vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-3.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.31North Carolina State University1.095.5%1st Place
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7.31Tulane University1.737.1%1st Place
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5.81Boston College2.4010.9%1st Place
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8.63University of South Florida1.545.1%1st Place
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4.76Stanford University2.6416.4%1st Place
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6.8Georgetown University1.869.4%1st Place
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6.81Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.638.5%1st Place
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11.21Christopher Newport University0.652.9%1st Place
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11.74University of Wisconsin0.362.5%1st Place
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6.23Roger Williams University1.979.7%1st Place
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10.85Old Dominion University0.682.9%1st Place
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7.65Dartmouth College1.606.9%1st Place
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10.21U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.852.7%1st Place
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10.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.912.8%1st Place
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11.67University of Vermont0.482.5%1st Place
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10.52St. Mary's College of Maryland0.613.2%1st Place
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13.6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.101.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabella du Plessis | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Caroline Benson | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 10.9% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Eden Nykamp | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Hannah Freeman | 16.4% | 13.0% | 14.1% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Bates | 9.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Lucy Brock | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 11.1% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 14.7% | 11.9% |
| Lucy Meagher | 9.7% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Megan Geith | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 7.0% |
| Taylor Eastman | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Julia Conneely | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 4.6% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.3% |
| Audrey Commerford | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 12.6% |
| Lily Flack | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 6.1% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 14.1% | 33.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.