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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College4.15+6.98vs Predicted
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2Tufts University4.08+6.36vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin4.10+5.32vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University4.74+1.63vs Predicted
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5Stanford University4.05+3.68vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University4.01+2.57vs Predicted
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7Washington College3.65+3.29vs Predicted
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8Harvard University4.36-0.63vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston3.64+1.06vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College4.06-1.70vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-0.81vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy3.66-1.52vs Predicted
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13Boston University3.56-2.66vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University3.07-1.21vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College3.55-4.53vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-2.97vs Predicted
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17Yale University3.89-7.92vs Predicted
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18Princeton University1.23-0.25vs Predicted
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19St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-6.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.98SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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8.36Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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8.32University of Wisconsin4.100.1%1st Place
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5.63Georgetown University4.740.1%1st Place
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8.68Stanford University4.050.1%1st Place
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8.57Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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10.29Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
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7.37Harvard University4.360.1%1st Place
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10.06College of Charleston3.640.0%1st Place
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8.3Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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10.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.0%1st Place
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10.48U. S. Naval Academy3.660.0%1st Place
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10.34Boston University3.560.0%1st Place
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12.79Roger Williams University3.070.0%1st Place
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10.47Connecticut College3.550.0%1st Place
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13.03U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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9.08Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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17.75Princeton University1.230.0%1st Place
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12.31St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Murray | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| William Haeger | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Kutschenreuter | 7.6% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Chris Barnard | 12.2% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Laube | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Dillon Paiva | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Michael Whitford | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1.3% |
| Brendan Kopp | 9.6% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Mac Mace | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 1.4% |
| Sam Williams | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Louis Padnos | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 1.6% |
| Jason Carminati | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 1.2% |
| Ryan Pesch | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 1.7% |
| George Saunders | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 13.3% | 14.4% | 5.5% |
| IG Schottlaender | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 1.8% |
| Andrew Bates | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 17.0% | 7.6% |
| Cam Cullman | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Lindsay Eysenbach | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 11.6% | 69.3% |
| John Wallace | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 5.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.