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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College4.15+7.10vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University4.01+6.65vs Predicted
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3Tufts University4.08+5.44vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+8.75vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University4.74+0.90vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College3.55+4.45vs Predicted
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7Stanford University4.05+1.48vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.89+1.35vs Predicted
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9Washington College3.65+0.99vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+0.08vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College4.06-2.62vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+1.46vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin4.10-5.06vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy3.66-3.75vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston3.64-4.85vs Predicted
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16Harvard University4.36-8.98vs Predicted
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17Boston University3.56-6.43vs Predicted
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18Roger Williams University3.07-5.44vs Predicted
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19Princeton University1.23-1.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.1SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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8.65Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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8.44Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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12.75St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
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5.9Georgetown University4.740.1%1st Place
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10.45Connecticut College3.550.0%1st Place
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8.48Stanford University4.050.1%1st Place
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9.35Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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9.99Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
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10.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.0%1st Place
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8.38Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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13.46U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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7.94University of Wisconsin4.100.1%1st Place
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10.25U. S. Naval Academy3.660.0%1st Place
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10.15College of Charleston3.640.0%1st Place
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7.02Harvard University4.360.1%1st Place
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10.57Boston University3.560.0%1st Place
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12.56Roger Williams University3.070.0%1st Place
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17.48Princeton University1.230.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Murray | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Dillon Paiva | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| William Haeger | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| John Wallace | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 12.9% | 13.1% | 5.9% |
| Chris Barnard | 11.9% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| IG Schottlaender | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 2.2% |
| Kevin Laube | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Cam Cullman | 6.1% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 0.6% |
| Michael Whitford | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 1.5% |
| Louis Padnos | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 1.0% |
| Sam Williams | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Bates | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 18.2% | 6.9% |
| Joseph Kutschenreuter | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Jason Carminati | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 1.2% |
| Mac Mace | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 2.1% |
| Brendan Kopp | 9.5% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Pesch | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 1.3% |
| George Saunders | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 7.0% |
| Lindsay Eysenbach | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 10.1% | 68.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.