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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of South Florida1.60+7.01vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College1.87+4.73vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.40+3.11vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University1.97+2.41vs Predicted
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5North Carolina State University1.09+3.47vs Predicted
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6Tulane University1.73+1.51vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.85+3.33vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.64-3.07vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.65+2.43vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.63-2.90vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland0.61-0.27vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University1.86-4.90vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.48-1.27vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University0.97-3.97vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-4.19vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin0.36-3.96vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-3.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.01University of South Florida1.606.7%1st Place
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6.73Dartmouth College1.878.2%1st Place
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6.11Boston College2.4010.3%1st Place
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6.41Roger Williams University1.979.7%1st Place
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8.47North Carolina State University1.096.3%1st Place
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7.51Tulane University1.737.0%1st Place
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10.33U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.853.2%1st Place
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4.93Stanford University2.6413.6%1st Place
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11.43Christopher Newport University0.651.7%1st Place
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7.1Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.638.2%1st Place
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10.73St. Mary's College of Maryland0.613.8%1st Place
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7.1Georgetown University1.868.0%1st Place
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11.73University of Vermont0.482.7%1st Place
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10.03Old Dominion University0.973.5%1st Place
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10.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.913.2%1st Place
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12.04University of Wisconsin0.362.5%1st Place
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13.51U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.101.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kay Brunsvold | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Gray Hemans | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 10.3% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Lucy Meagher | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.6% |
| Caroline Benson | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Julia Conneely | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 5.9% |
| Hannah Freeman | 13.6% | 15.2% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Grace Watlington | 1.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 9.9% |
| Lucy Brock | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Lily Flack | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 7.1% |
| Kelly Bates | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Audrey Commerford | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 13.5% |
| Gianna Dewey | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.1% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 13.9% | 15.2% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 15.3% | 31.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.