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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University4.74+4.67vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University4.01+6.60vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin4.10+5.30vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.64+6.23vs Predicted
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5Tufts University4.08+3.52vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College4.15+1.99vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.07+5.62vs Predicted
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8Harvard University4.36-0.63vs Predicted
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9Stanford University4.05-0.74vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+0.03vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+1.66vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College4.06-3.26vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College3.55-2.69vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy3.66-3.79vs Predicted
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15Washington College3.65-4.99vs Predicted
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16Yale University3.89-7.04vs Predicted
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17Boston University3.56-6.52vs Predicted
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18Princeton University0.55+0.37vs Predicted
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19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-6.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.67Georgetown University4.740.1%1st Place
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8.6Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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8.3University of Wisconsin4.100.1%1st Place
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10.23College of Charleston3.640.0%1st Place
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8.52Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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7.99SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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12.62Roger Williams University3.070.0%1st Place
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7.37Harvard University4.360.1%1st Place
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8.26Stanford University4.050.1%1st Place
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10.03Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.0%1st Place
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12.66St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
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8.74Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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10.31Connecticut College3.550.0%1st Place
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10.21U. S. Naval Academy3.660.0%1st Place
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10.01Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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8.96Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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10.48Boston University3.560.0%1st Place
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18.37Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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12.68U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Barnard | 12.4% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Joseph Kutschenreuter | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Mac Mace | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 0.5% |
| William Haeger | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Shawn Murray | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| George Saunders | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 15.5% | 2.7% |
| Brendan Kopp | 8.8% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Laube | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Louis Padnos | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 1.0% |
| John Wallace | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 16.5% | 3.5% |
| Sam Williams | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| IG Schottlaender | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 0.5% |
| Jason Carminati | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 0.7% |
| Michael Whitford | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 0.9% |
| Cam Cullman | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Pesch | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 1.0% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 6.3% | 83.6% |
| Andrew Bates | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 12.6% | 15.6% | 4.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.