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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College4.15+7.00vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University4.01+6.66vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University4.74+2.80vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.64+6.19vs Predicted
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5Harvard University4.36+2.35vs Predicted
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6Tufts University4.08+2.24vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+5.72vs Predicted
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8Stanford University4.05+0.67vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.89-0.10vs Predicted
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10Washington College3.65+0.12vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University3.07+1.55vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin4.10-3.46vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College3.55-2.65vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College4.06-5.56vs Predicted
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15Boston University3.56-4.65vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy3.66-6.06vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-4.00vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-7.99vs Predicted
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19Princeton University0.55-0.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.0SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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8.66Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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5.8Georgetown University4.740.1%1st Place
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10.19College of Charleston3.640.0%1st Place
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7.35Harvard University4.360.1%1st Place
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8.24Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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12.72St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
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8.67Stanford University4.050.1%1st Place
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8.9Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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10.12Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
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12.55Roger Williams University3.070.0%1st Place
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8.54University of Wisconsin4.100.1%1st Place
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10.35Connecticut College3.550.0%1st Place
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8.44Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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10.35Boston University3.560.0%1st Place
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9.94U. S. Naval Academy3.660.0%1st Place
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13.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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10.01Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.0%1st Place
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18.18Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Murray | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Dillon Paiva | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Chris Barnard | 13.1% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mac Mace | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 0.7% |
| Brendan Kopp | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| William Haeger | 8.6% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| John Wallace | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 16.2% | 3.0% |
| Kevin Laube | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Cam Cullman | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| Michael Whitford | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 0.7% |
| George Saunders | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 12.3% | 14.8% | 3.0% |
| Joseph Kutschenreuter | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| IG Schottlaender | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 0.6% |
| Sam Williams | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Pesch | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 1.1% |
| Jason Carminati | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 0.4% |
| Andrew Bates | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 12.3% | 19.1% | 4.7% |
| Louis Padnos | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 0.7% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 5.7% | 83.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.