Race 17A

admiral-cup

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

21.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Ryan Pesch 3.5% 4.1% 3.8% 4.9% 3.9% 5.5% 5.9% 5.6% 5.3% 5.4% 6.1% 6.0% 5.6% 5.1% 8.5% 6.9% 7.0% 5.6% 1.3%
Dillon Paiva 6.6% 6.8% 5.5% 6.8% 6.1% 6.4% 6.0% 5.0% 6.3% 6.2% 6.8% 5.5% 6.0% 6.3% 3.6% 4.6% 3.6% 1.7% 0.2%
Kevin Laube 7.4% 7.4% 5.6% 5.7% 6.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.6% 5.7% 7.1% 6.3% 6.3% 4.8% 6.5% 3.9% 4.8% 1.8% 2.0% 0.7%
Sam Williams 7.0% 6.4% 6.6% 6.3% 6.1% 6.0% 5.5% 7.2% 6.2% 7.3% 6.6% 5.6% 6.0% 5.1% 5.5% 3.2% 1.9% 1.3% 0.2%
Shawn Murray 5.8% 6.2% 7.8% 6.7% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 6.8% 6.5% 6.2% 6.4% 5.9% 4.1% 5.0% 3.8% 4.0% 2.2% 1.4% 0.2%
Louis Padnos 4.9% 4.6% 6.0% 5.5% 3.7% 4.6% 5.0% 6.4% 5.9% 5.3% 3.7% 5.6% 7.5% 5.2% 6.9% 4.9% 6.8% 6.5% 1.0%
Cam Cullman 5.9% 5.0% 6.4% 5.1% 5.0% 6.2% 6.0% 6.9% 5.5% 6.3% 6.0% 6.3% 6.0% 6.2% 6.1% 4.4% 3.6% 3.0% 0.1%
Chris Barnard 12.8% 11.6% 9.9% 9.5% 10.5% 6.6% 7.6% 5.9% 6.6% 4.4% 3.2% 3.9% 2.8% 1.7% 1.2% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Brendan Kopp 9.3% 10.7% 7.5% 8.9% 7.0% 6.8% 7.6% 7.1% 6.2% 5.8% 6.1% 3.5% 3.0% 3.4% 2.6% 2.2% 1.4% 0.8% 0.1%
Joseph Kutschenreuter 7.0% 7.4% 6.6% 6.5% 6.6% 7.4% 6.9% 5.5% 7.1% 5.2% 6.1% 7.5% 5.2% 4.9% 3.6% 2.9% 2.7% 0.8% 0.1%
Michael Whitford 4.3% 4.0% 4.8% 4.3% 6.0% 6.0% 4.1% 5.3% 5.1% 5.0% 7.7% 6.4% 6.3% 6.9% 5.8% 6.3% 5.8% 5.4% 0.5%
George Saunders 2.2% 1.7% 3.1% 2.5% 2.1% 3.6% 3.5% 3.1% 2.6% 3.7% 4.0% 4.9% 5.1% 6.3% 8.3% 11.5% 12.3% 15.9% 3.6%
Mac Mace 4.5% 4.9% 5.4% 4.3% 5.2% 4.7% 4.3% 5.0% 5.6% 6.2% 6.5% 7.2% 5.9% 7.4% 5.6% 6.0% 7.2% 3.5% 0.6%
William Haeger 6.3% 5.1% 7.3% 6.4% 6.5% 6.8% 9.0% 5.5% 5.4% 5.8% 5.1% 5.9% 6.1% 5.4% 5.5% 3.8% 2.3% 1.4% 0.4%
John Wallace 2.7% 3.2% 1.9% 3.8% 3.0% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.3% 4.0% 4.7% 3.8% 6.1% 5.5% 6.8% 8.0% 11.6% 15.8% 4.3%
Andrew Bates 2.0% 2.2% 2.5% 2.7% 3.0% 3.1% 2.3% 3.6% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 3.5% 5.1% 6.1% 8.0% 9.1% 12.9% 18.0% 3.4%
IG Schottlaender 3.4% 4.4% 3.9% 4.4% 6.5% 5.3% 3.9% 5.3% 4.5% 5.8% 4.5% 5.4% 7.1% 6.1% 6.9% 7.5% 8.2% 6.2% 0.7%
Jason Carminati 4.1% 4.2% 5.0% 5.1% 5.3% 5.0% 5.4% 6.0% 6.6% 5.6% 5.5% 6.2% 6.5% 6.2% 5.7% 6.8% 5.7% 4.6% 0.5%
Andrew Grasso 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 1.7% 2.0% 2.4% 6.0% 82.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.