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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+7.97vs Predicted
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2University of Wisconsin3.36+7.51vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.49+6.05vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.70+4.05vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston3.95+2.29vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.72+1.93vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University4.67-2.44vs Predicted
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8Boston University3.35+1.68vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.23+0.87vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32-0.38vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.05-0.19vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30-1.91vs Predicted
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13Washington College3.07-2.51vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University3.67-5.67vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University3.15-4.74vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College3.60-7.65vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College2.64-4.62vs Predicted
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18Princeton University0.09+0.27vs Predicted
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19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.13-2.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.97St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.0%1st Place
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9.51University of Wisconsin3.360.1%1st Place
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9.05Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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8.05Tufts University3.700.1%1st Place
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7.29College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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7.93Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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4.56Georgetown University4.670.2%1st Place
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9.68Boston University3.350.1%1st Place
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9.87Yale University3.230.0%1st Place
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9.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.0%1st Place
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10.81Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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10.09St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.0%1st Place
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10.49Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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8.33Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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10.26Roger Williams University3.150.0%1st Place
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8.35SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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12.38Connecticut College2.640.0%1st Place
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18.27Princeton University0.090.0%1st Place
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16.5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markus Edegran | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.1% |
| Scott Houck | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Massimo Soriano | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ben Spector | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Toole | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Evan Aras | 15.9% | 16.8% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Johnson | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| Rob Struckett | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Elliott Morrill | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Michael Drumm | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 4.5% | 0.5% |
| Jacob La Dow | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 0.3% |
| Gavin Rudolph | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Tamblyn | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 0.4% |
| Harry Scott | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Timothy Clark | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 16.5% | 10.3% | 1.7% |
| Sarah Gross | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 4.0% | 16.5% | 72.6% |
| Andrew Baransky | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 42.8% | 22.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.