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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University4.67+3.55vs Predicted
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2University of Wisconsin3.36+7.50vs Predicted
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3Tufts University3.70+5.17vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.72+3.94vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University3.15+5.60vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston3.95+1.02vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.05+3.83vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+1.90vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College3.60-0.69vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.23-0.04vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University3.67-2.81vs Predicted
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12Boston University3.35-2.14vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College3.49-4.27vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49-4.99vs Predicted
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15Washington College3.07-4.50vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College2.64-3.67vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30-7.29vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.13-1.20vs Predicted
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19Princeton University0.09-0.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.55Georgetown University4.670.2%1st Place
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9.5University of Wisconsin3.360.1%1st Place
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8.17Tufts University3.700.1%1st Place
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7.94Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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10.6Roger Williams University3.150.0%1st Place
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7.02College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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10.83Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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9.9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.1%1st Place
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8.31SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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9.96Yale University3.230.0%1st Place
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8.19Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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9.86Boston University3.350.0%1st Place
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8.73Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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9.01St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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10.5Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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12.33Connecticut College2.640.0%1st Place
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9.71St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.0%1st Place
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16.8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.130.0%1st Place
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18.07Princeton University0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Aras | 16.5% | 16.7% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| Massimo Soriano | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Oliver Toole | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Tamblyn | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Ben Spector | 10.1% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Michael Drumm | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 0.8% |
| Elliott Morrill | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Harry Scott | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Rob Struckett | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Gavin Rudolph | 5.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Johnson | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Scott Houck | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Markus Edegran | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 4.4% | 0.6% |
| Timothy Clark | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 14.2% | 10.9% | 1.3% |
| Jacob La Dow | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Baransky | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 9.5% | 42.4% | 25.3% |
| Sarah Gross | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 17.6% | 69.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.