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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College3.60+7.52vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.15+8.39vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.23+7.17vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30+5.75vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College2.64+7.73vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+2.89vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.05+3.78vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+1.88vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston3.95-2.12vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.67-1.94vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University4.67-6.53vs Predicted
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12Boston University3.35-2.10vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College3.49-4.31vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin3.36-4.43vs Predicted
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15Washington College3.07-4.43vs Predicted
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16Stanford University3.72-8.12vs Predicted
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17Tufts University3.70-8.94vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.13-1.24vs Predicted
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19Princeton University0.09-0.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.52SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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10.39Roger Williams University3.150.0%1st Place
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10.17Yale University3.230.0%1st Place
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9.75St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.0%1st Place
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12.73Connecticut College2.640.0%1st Place
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8.89St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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10.78Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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9.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.0%1st Place
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6.88College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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8.06Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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4.47Georgetown University4.670.2%1st Place
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9.9Boston University3.350.0%1st Place
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8.69Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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9.57University of Wisconsin3.360.0%1st Place
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10.57Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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7.88Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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8.06Tufts University3.700.1%1st Place
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16.76U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.130.0%1st Place
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18.06Princeton University0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Scott | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Tamblyn | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 0.3% |
| Rob Struckett | 4.3% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 0.3% |
| Jacob La Dow | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Timothy Clark | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 17.2% | 9.8% | 1.7% |
| Markus Edegran | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 0.1% |
| Michael Drumm | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 4.0% | 0.6% |
| Elliott Morrill | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Ben Spector | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Rudolph | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Evan Aras | 17.8% | 15.2% | 13.4% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Johnson | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Scott Houck | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 4.2% | 0.7% |
| Oliver Toole | 6.8% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Massimo Soriano | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Baransky | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 9.8% | 41.7% | 25.1% |
| Sarah Gross | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 4.6% | 16.5% | 69.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.