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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.49+7.99vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.72+6.05vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College3.60+5.59vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.95+3.02vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University4.67-0.32vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.67+2.19vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.23+3.09vs Predicted
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8Washington College3.07+2.95vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30+0.52vs Predicted
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10Boston University3.35-0.57vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32-1.34vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University3.15-1.29vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin3.36-3.77vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College2.64-1.44vs Predicted
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15Harvard University3.05-4.34vs Predicted
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16Tufts University3.70-8.06vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49-8.09vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.13-1.20vs Predicted
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19Princeton University0.09-0.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.99Dartmouth College3.490.0%1st Place
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8.05Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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8.59SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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7.02College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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4.68Georgetown University4.670.2%1st Place
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8.19Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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10.09Yale University3.230.0%1st Place
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10.95Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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9.52St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.1%1st Place
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9.43Boston University3.350.0%1st Place
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9.66Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.0%1st Place
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10.71Roger Williams University3.150.0%1st Place
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9.23University of Wisconsin3.360.1%1st Place
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12.56Connecticut College2.640.0%1st Place
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10.66Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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7.94Tufts University3.700.1%1st Place
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8.91St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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16.8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.130.0%1st Place
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18.04Princeton University0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Houck | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Toole | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Harry Scott | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Ben Spector | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Evan Aras | 16.1% | 13.6% | 15.2% | 12.0% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Rudolph | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Rob Struckett | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| Jacob La Dow | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Matt Johnson | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Elliott Morrill | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Tamblyn | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 0.7% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Timothy Clark | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 15.5% | 10.5% | 1.3% |
| Michael Drumm | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 5.2% | 0.4% |
| Massimo Soriano | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Markus Edegran | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Baransky | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 9.9% | 42.9% | 24.9% |
| Sarah Gross | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 16.9% | 70.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.