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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.95+6.10vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.70+6.12vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.72+5.11vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University4.67+0.50vs Predicted
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5University of Wisconsin3.36+4.75vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30+3.62vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.23+3.10vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.15+2.61vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College3.49-0.17vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.67-1.86vs Predicted
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11Boston University3.35-1.50vs Predicted
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12Harvard University3.05-0.79vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49-4.34vs Predicted
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14Washington College3.07-3.20vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32-5.42vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College3.60-7.63vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.13-0.39vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College2.64-5.65vs Predicted
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19Princeton University0.09-0.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.1College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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8.12Tufts University3.700.1%1st Place
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8.11Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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4.5Georgetown University4.670.2%1st Place
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9.75University of Wisconsin3.360.0%1st Place
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9.62St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.1%1st Place
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10.1Yale University3.230.0%1st Place
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10.61Roger Williams University3.150.0%1st Place
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8.83Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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8.14Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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9.5Boston University3.350.0%1st Place
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11.21Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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8.66St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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10.8Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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9.58Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.0%1st Place
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8.37SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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16.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.130.0%1st Place
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12.35Connecticut College2.640.0%1st Place
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18.05Princeton University0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Spector | 7.0% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Massimo Soriano | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Toole | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Evan Aras | 17.3% | 15.3% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Jacob La Dow | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Rob Struckett | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Andrew Tamblyn | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| Scott Houck | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Gavin Rudolph | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Matt Johnson | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Michael Drumm | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 4.4% | 0.9% |
| Markus Edegran | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.3% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 0.3% |
| Elliott Morrill | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 0.3% |
| Harry Scott | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Baransky | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 8.6% | 42.5% | 25.4% |
| Timothy Clark | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 8.6% | 2.4% |
| Sarah Gross | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 19.7% | 68.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.