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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University4.67+3.56vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.72+6.04vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.95+4.13vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.70+4.05vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.67+3.39vs Predicted
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6Washington College3.07+4.61vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.23+3.11vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College3.60+0.74vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30+0.58vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.05+0.71vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University3.15-0.62vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College3.49-2.74vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49-4.30vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College2.64-1.47vs Predicted
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15Boston University3.35-5.58vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin3.36-6.66vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32-7.37vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.13-1.20vs Predicted
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19Princeton University0.09-0.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.56Georgetown University4.670.2%1st Place
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8.04Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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7.13College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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8.05Tufts University3.700.1%1st Place
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8.39Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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10.61Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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10.11Yale University3.230.0%1st Place
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8.74SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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9.58St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.0%1st Place
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10.71Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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10.38Roger Williams University3.150.0%1st Place
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9.26Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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8.7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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12.53Connecticut College2.640.0%1st Place
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9.42Boston University3.350.1%1st Place
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9.34University of Wisconsin3.360.0%1st Place
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9.63Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.0%1st Place
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16.8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.130.0%1st Place
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18.04Princeton University0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Aras | 17.8% | 15.4% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Toole | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ben Spector | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Massimo Soriano | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Gavin Rudolph | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 0.9% |
| Rob Struckett | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 0.1% |
| Harry Scott | 6.4% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Jacob La Dow | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Michael Drumm | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 0.6% |
| Andrew Tamblyn | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| Scott Houck | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Markus Edegran | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Timothy Clark | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 15.4% | 10.1% | 1.5% |
| Matt Johnson | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 0.1% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Elliott Morrill | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Baransky | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 9.9% | 43.1% | 25.1% |
| Sarah Gross | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 17.1% | 69.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.