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📊 Prediction Accuracy
18.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Military Academy2.05+5.97vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.85+2.50vs Predicted
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3Harvard University2.48+2.29vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.62+4.87vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.92-0.10vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.42+2.69vs Predicted
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7Salve Regina University0.46+2.66vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.86-0.23vs Predicted
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9Florida Institute of Technology0.73+2.40vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University1.84-2.19vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.82-2.95vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.09-5.30vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College1.20-2.89vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.41-1.32vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island1.05-4.63vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College0.60-3.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.97U. S. Military Academy2.057.0%1st Place
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4.5Yale University2.8516.2%1st Place
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5.29Harvard University2.4811.3%1st Place
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8.87Fordham University1.623.8%1st Place
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4.9Yale University2.9215.8%1st Place
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8.69University of Rhode Island1.424.2%1st Place
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9.66Salve Regina University0.464.0%1st Place
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7.77Brown University1.867.1%1st Place
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11.4Florida Institute of Technology0.732.6%1st Place
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7.81Roger Williams University1.846.4%1st Place
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8.05George Washington University1.824.6%1st Place
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6.7Roger Williams University2.098.1%1st Place
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10.11Connecticut College1.203.1%1st Place
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12.68SUNY Maritime College0.411.2%1st Place
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10.37University of Rhode Island1.052.6%1st Place
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12.22Connecticut College0.601.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Paul | 7.0% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Stephan Baker | 16.2% | 15.2% | 14.3% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 11.3% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 2.6% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 15.8% | 12.4% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Nash | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 2.6% |
| Emil Tullberg | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 4.9% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Brendan Smucker | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 13.7% | 15.0% |
| Drew Mastovsky | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Oliver Stokke | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Skylor Sweet | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 6.3% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 15.9% | 30.2% |
| Olin Guck | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 8.6% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 12.0% | 14.8% | 25.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.