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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30+8.71vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.60+6.54vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College2.64+9.40vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.72+3.98vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+4.90vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.70+2.02vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College3.49+2.01vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+1.18vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston3.95-2.08vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.67-1.89vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University3.15-0.62vs Predicted
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12Harvard University3.05-0.86vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin3.36-3.78vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University4.67-9.36vs Predicted
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15Boston University3.35-5.62vs Predicted
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16Washington College3.07-5.49vs Predicted
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17Yale University3.23-6.95vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.13-1.19vs Predicted
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19Princeton University0.09-0.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.71St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.0%1st Place
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8.54SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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12.4Connecticut College2.640.0%1st Place
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7.98Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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9.9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.0%1st Place
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8.02Tufts University3.700.1%1st Place
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9.01Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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9.18St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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6.92College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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8.11Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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10.38Roger Williams University3.150.0%1st Place
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11.14Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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9.22University of Wisconsin3.360.1%1st Place
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4.64Georgetown University4.670.2%1st Place
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9.38Boston University3.350.1%1st Place
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10.51Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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10.05Yale University3.230.0%1st Place
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16.81U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.130.0%1st Place
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18.07Princeton University0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob La Dow | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 0.1% |
| Harry Scott | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Timothy Clark | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 17.0% | 9.0% | 2.4% |
| Oliver Toole | 7.2% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Morrill | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Massimo Soriano | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Scott Houck | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Markus Edegran | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Ben Spector | 8.9% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Gavin Rudolph | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Tamblyn | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 0.6% |
| Michael Drumm | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 3.9% | 0.8% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Evan Aras | 17.7% | 13.2% | 14.0% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Johnson | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 4.1% | 0.2% |
| Rob Struckett | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Baransky | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 10.0% | 43.6% | 24.8% |
| Sarah Gross | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 17.7% | 69.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.