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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College1.92+6.20vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.40+3.86vs Predicted
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3Cornell University3.35+0.70vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.88+0.73vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.03-0.56vs Predicted
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6Columbia University1.30+2.62vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.45-1.27vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University3.28-4.19vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University1.55-1.09vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.34-3.96vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.24-2.17vs Predicted
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12William and Mary-0.29-0.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.2Washington College1.920.0%1st Place
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5.86Old Dominion University2.400.1%1st Place
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3.7Cornell University3.350.2%1st Place
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4.73U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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4.44St. Mary's College of Maryland3.030.1%1st Place
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8.62Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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5.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.450.1%1st Place
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3.81Georgetown University3.280.2%1st Place
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7.91Christopher Newport University1.550.0%1st Place
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6.04University of Pennsylvania2.340.1%1st Place
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8.83George Washington University1.240.0%1st Place
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11.13William and Mary-0.290.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Needham | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 14.2% | 15.1% | 9.2% | 2.7% |
| Rachel Austin | 6.4% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 10.1% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 0.3% |
| Lauren Turner | 20.2% | 16.4% | 16.8% | 13.0% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Marissa Lihan | 11.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 12.7% | 13.9% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Catherine Shanahan | 14.2% | 15.0% | 12.0% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 12.3% | 18.7% | 22.8% | 9.8% |
| Brooke Lyon | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 0.7% |
| Nancy Hagood | 20.6% | 16.0% | 14.8% | 12.5% | 12.2% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Annie Eckmann | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 12.5% | 14.4% | 15.3% | 17.3% | 3.4% |
| Emma Kofmehl | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 11.3% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 0.6% |
| Alex Hitchcock | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 18.6% | 25.0% | 10.6% |
| Amanda Castagna | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 5.6% | 11.4% | 71.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.