← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
54.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Naval Academy2.88+3.77vs Predicted
-
2Washington College1.92+5.05vs Predicted
-
3Old Dominion University2.40+3.04vs Predicted
-
4Georgetown University3.28-0.06vs Predicted
-
5Cornell University3.35-1.31vs Predicted
-
6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.03-1.60vs Predicted
-
7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.45-1.42vs Predicted
-
8Columbia University1.30+0.35vs Predicted
-
9George Washington University1.24-0.41vs Predicted
-
10Christopher Newport University1.55-2.26vs Predicted
-
11University of Pennsylvania2.34-5.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.77U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
-
7.05Washington College1.920.0%1st Place
-
6.04Old Dominion University2.400.1%1st Place
-
3.94Georgetown University3.280.2%1st Place
-
3.69Cornell University3.350.2%1st Place
-
4.4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.030.1%1st Place
-
5.58Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.450.1%1st Place
-
8.35Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
-
8.59George Washington University1.240.0%1st Place
-
7.74Christopher Newport University1.550.0%1st Place
-
5.85University of Pennsylvania2.340.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marissa Lihan | 10.6% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Mackenzie Needham | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 15.4% | 13.7% | 10.0% |
| Rachel Austin | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 4.1% |
| Nancy Hagood | 16.5% | 16.9% | 14.4% | 15.3% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Lauren Turner | 21.0% | 18.0% | 14.8% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Catherine Shanahan | 13.9% | 15.1% | 14.0% | 13.5% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Brooke Lyon | 9.3% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 3.5% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 13.1% | 19.4% | 27.3% |
| Alex Hitchcock | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 11.9% | 21.3% | 31.4% |
| Annie Eckmann | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 11.7% | 14.0% | 17.2% | 18.8% |
| Emma Kofmehl | 8.1% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 2.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.