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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.71+4.16vs Predicted
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2Cornell University3.35+1.55vs Predicted
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3Columbia University1.30+5.58vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.45+1.79vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.34+0.98vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.88-1.33vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.03-2.70vs Predicted
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8Washington College1.92-1.07vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University2.40-3.31vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University1.55-2.05vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.24-2.13vs Predicted
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12William and Mary0.31-1.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.16Georgetown University2.710.1%1st Place
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3.55Cornell University3.350.2%1st Place
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8.58Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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5.79Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.450.1%1st Place
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5.98University of Pennsylvania2.340.1%1st Place
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4.67U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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4.3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.030.2%1st Place
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6.93Washington College1.920.1%1st Place
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5.69Old Dominion University2.400.1%1st Place
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7.95Christopher Newport University1.550.0%1st Place
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8.87George Washington University1.240.0%1st Place
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10.53William and Mary0.310.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Taselaar | 10.3% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| Lauren Turner | 21.0% | 19.5% | 15.3% | 14.0% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 16.8% | 21.0% | 12.9% |
| Brooke Lyon | 7.0% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| Emma Kofmehl | 6.8% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| Marissa Lihan | 13.4% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Catherine Shanahan | 16.9% | 13.4% | 16.3% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Mackenzie Needham | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 8.2% | 4.2% |
| Rachel Austin | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Annie Eckmann | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 15.0% | 15.4% | 9.1% |
| Alex Hitchcock | 2.6% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 16.5% | 21.0% | 16.5% |
| Meghan Tamminen | 0.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 19.4% | 53.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.