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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island0.12+10.41vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston1.81+3.92vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College1.84+3.53vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.72+2.45vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy1.18+3.38vs Predicted
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6Tufts University0.93+2.73vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.10-1.42vs Predicted
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8Florida State University0.05+3.90vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.68-2.71vs Predicted
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10Brown University1.99-4.38vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University0.82-1.83vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.07-3.59vs Predicted
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13Boston University-1.31+1.71vs Predicted
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14Fordham University0.71-4.28vs Predicted
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15Yale University2.55-10.92vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan-0.64-2.54vs Predicted
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17Washington College-3.22-0.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.41University of Rhode Island0.122.1%1st Place
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5.92College of Charleston1.819.9%1st Place
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6.53Bowdoin College1.848.3%1st Place
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6.45University of Pennsylvania1.728.2%1st Place
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8.38U. S. Naval Academy1.185.0%1st Place
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8.73Tufts University0.933.4%1st Place
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5.58Harvard University2.1011.4%1st Place
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11.9Florida State University0.051.7%1st Place
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6.29Cornell University1.688.2%1st Place
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5.62Brown University1.9910.4%1st Place
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9.17Jacksonville University0.824.2%1st Place
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8.41George Washington University1.074.5%1st Place
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14.71Boston University-1.310.2%1st Place
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9.72Fordham University0.712.8%1st Place
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4.08Yale University2.5519.2%1st Place
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13.46University of Michigan-0.640.5%1st Place
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16.63Washington College-3.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariana Schwartz | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 16.2% | 15.4% | 7.2% | 0.7% |
| Emma Tallman | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Russler | 8.3% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Haley Andreasen | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Cordelia Burn | 11.4% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Niah Ford | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 17.2% | 18.2% | 9.0% | 0.8% |
| J.J. Smith | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katharine Doble | 10.4% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Agija Elerte | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 4.6% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Danielle Bogacheva | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 8.9% | 16.2% | 47.4% | 11.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 6.6% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Emma Cowles | 19.2% | 17.6% | 13.7% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 14.5% | 26.7% | 23.4% | 2.9% |
| Nora Beebe | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 8.2% | 84.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.