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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston1.81+4.87vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.96+3.77vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.72+3.33vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College1.84+2.52vs Predicted
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5Tufts University0.93+3.43vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.55-1.95vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy0.52+2.98vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.99-2.63vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University0.82+0.28vs Predicted
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10Harvard University2.10-4.64vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.07-2.50vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island0.12-0.49vs Predicted
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13Boston University-1.31+1.78vs Predicted
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14Florida State University0.05-2.08vs Predicted
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15Fordham University0.71-5.53vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan-0.64-2.71vs Predicted
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17Washington College-3.22-0.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.87College of Charleston1.819.4%1st Place
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5.77Cornell University1.9611.0%1st Place
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6.33University of Pennsylvania1.729.2%1st Place
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6.52Bowdoin College1.848.3%1st Place
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8.43Tufts University0.934.3%1st Place
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4.05Yale University2.5518.7%1st Place
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9.98U. S. Naval Academy0.522.3%1st Place
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5.37Brown University1.9912.4%1st Place
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9.28Jacksonville University0.823.0%1st Place
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5.36Harvard University2.1011.1%1st Place
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8.5George Washington University1.074.0%1st Place
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11.51University of Rhode Island0.121.4%1st Place
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14.78Boston University-1.310.4%1st Place
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11.92Florida State University0.050.4%1st Place
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9.47Fordham University0.713.1%1st Place
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13.29University of Michigan-0.640.6%1st Place
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16.58Washington College-3.220.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Tallman | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Winborne Majette | 11.0% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Russler | 8.3% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Haley Andreasen | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Emma Cowles | 18.7% | 16.8% | 14.8% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 7.7% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| Katharine Doble | 12.4% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Agija Elerte | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Cordelia Burn | 11.1% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ariana Schwartz | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 16.1% | 15.3% | 6.6% | 0.5% |
| Danielle Bogacheva | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 8.6% | 15.9% | 46.9% | 11.8% |
| Niah Ford | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 14.3% | 15.9% | 17.0% | 8.3% | 0.9% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 15.2% | 24.0% | 22.2% | 2.8% |
| Nora Beebe | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.9% | 8.8% | 83.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.