Race 12B

new-york-maritime-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

16.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Payne Donaldson 21.3% 17.2% 17.1% 14.0% 11.3% 7.9% 5.2% 3.4% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Margaux Cowles 10.1% 9.4% 10.1% 11.7% 10.8% 11.8% 12.8% 10.3% 6.9% 4.4% 1.8% 0.1%
Andrew Tollefson 6.9% 7.4% 7.0% 8.6% 10.5% 9.8% 10.8% 12.0% 11.9% 9.8% 4.7% 0.8%
Jasper Waldman 5.8% 7.0% 7.4% 8.3% 9.6% 10.2% 11.6% 12.6% 11.2% 11.2% 4.7% 0.4%
Thomas Roeber 4.5% 5.9% 5.7% 6.6% 7.8% 7.6% 9.7% 12.1% 15.7% 13.9% 8.9% 1.7%
Austin Latimer 2.6% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 5.1% 5.2% 6.8% 9.5% 13.9% 21.3% 19.8% 6.1%
Lucas Thress 19.6% 19.4% 15.9% 14.0% 10.3% 8.8% 6.4% 3.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Gavin Sanborn 8.0% 8.4% 10.9% 8.3% 10.7% 12.2% 12.4% 11.5% 8.2% 6.7% 2.5% 0.2%
Pilar Cundey 13.8% 13.6% 13.3% 13.8% 11.2% 13.1% 9.0% 6.2% 4.2% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1%
John Cabell 5.9% 6.9% 7.8% 9.5% 9.6% 10.3% 10.3% 11.9% 13.6% 10.1% 3.5% 0.5%
Oliver Browne 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.6% 2.2% 2.4% 3.4% 5.5% 7.6% 13.2% 35.4% 25.1%
Ryan Kanter 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 1.8% 1.8% 2.9% 7.1% 18.2% 65.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.