Race 1B

erau-greg-popp

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

72.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.2
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Morgan Smith 32.8% 26.8% 18.9% 11.7% 6.2% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Luke Justin 14.4% 15.8% 19.2% 18.8% 15.2% 9.4% 4.5% 1.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Joshua Knowles 28.2% 25.4% 20.9% 13.5% 7.1% 3.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Julien Waite 3.4% 6.1% 6.8% 9.2% 13.0% 16.6% 15.2% 13.5% 10.0% 5.1% 1.1%
Tanner Cummings 5.1% 6.2% 8.5% 10.2% 12.9% 15.3% 14.9% 13.1% 8.8% 3.9% 1.1%
Ella Lansford 8.0% 9.6% 10.5% 14.8% 16.6% 15.7% 12.3% 7.1% 3.9% 1.5% 0.2%
Kathleen Perry 2.1% 2.8% 3.4% 5.2% 7.5% 9.6% 13.4% 15.3% 17.6% 15.3% 7.7%
Nora VanDerMeid 1.6% 2.2% 3.1% 4.5% 5.9% 8.7% 11.2% 16.2% 19.9% 17.8% 8.8%
Harriss Thorne 3.0% 3.2% 4.9% 7.1% 9.2% 12.0% 14.7% 15.3% 15.3% 10.0% 5.2%
Brandon Babey 0.7% 0.7% 1.5% 1.9% 2.5% 3.3% 4.5% 7.1% 10.9% 20.5% 46.3%
Joseph Mrazek 0.7% 1.2% 2.2% 2.9% 3.9% 4.0% 7.0% 9.8% 13.0% 25.8% 29.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.