Race 3B

erau-greg-popp

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

54.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Luke Justin 14.2% 16.4% 18.5% 19.9% 15.2% 8.2% 4.7% 2.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Joshua Knowles 29.8% 25.9% 20.5% 12.8% 6.8% 2.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Ella Lansford 8.1% 8.1% 11.4% 14.2% 17.0% 15.8% 11.8% 8.0% 4.0% 1.3% 0.2%
Morgan Smith 30.6% 27.8% 20.3% 12.1% 5.8% 2.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Kathleen Perry 2.4% 2.7% 4.2% 4.8% 7.9% 9.7% 13.6% 15.7% 18.6% 13.9% 6.7%
Nora VanDerMeid 1.8% 2.1% 3.5% 4.5% 6.6% 9.0% 12.2% 14.1% 18.6% 17.3% 10.1%
Harriss Thorne 3.0% 3.6% 4.6% 6.5% 8.5% 11.3% 14.1% 15.8% 15.7% 11.9% 5.1%
Tanner Cummings 4.5% 5.9% 6.9% 10.2% 13.9% 16.6% 14.6% 13.8% 9.0% 3.6% 1.2%
Julien Waite 4.8% 5.9% 7.1% 10.5% 12.3% 15.6% 14.5% 12.7% 9.8% 5.2% 1.7%
Brandon Babey 0.2% 0.9% 1.3% 1.6% 2.6% 3.9% 5.0% 7.2% 9.7% 20.3% 47.4%
Joseph Mrazek 0.7% 0.9% 1.8% 2.8% 3.5% 4.9% 8.0% 9.9% 13.8% 26.2% 27.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.