Race 5B

erau-greg-popp

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

90.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.0
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Morgan Smith 30.6% 27.0% 19.8% 12.7% 6.3% 2.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Joshua Knowles 28.3% 26.5% 20.9% 12.8% 7.3% 2.8% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Luke Justin 15.2% 17.6% 20.3% 16.7% 14.0% 8.8% 4.3% 2.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Ella Lansford 7.8% 8.5% 10.4% 16.1% 17.0% 15.3% 11.8% 8.2% 3.3% 1.5% 0.1%
Harriss Thorne 2.1% 2.8% 4.0% 5.3% 9.2% 11.8% 14.3% 15.8% 16.9% 12.5% 5.3%
Julien Waite 4.2% 5.5% 7.3% 10.7% 12.5% 15.6% 15.9% 13.1% 9.4% 4.7% 1.1%
Tanner Cummings 5.8% 5.8% 7.6% 10.3% 14.8% 15.4% 14.5% 11.5% 9.1% 4.0% 1.1%
Kathleen Perry 2.8% 2.2% 3.2% 6.2% 6.7% 9.3% 13.1% 15.6% 18.4% 15.7% 6.8%
Nora VanDerMeid 1.6% 2.1% 2.9% 4.7% 6.9% 9.2% 11.3% 17.0% 16.3% 17.5% 10.4%
Joseph Mrazek 1.1% 1.1% 2.1% 2.6% 3.2% 5.8% 7.8% 10.8% 13.4% 24.4% 27.7%
Brandon Babey 0.5% 0.9% 1.5% 1.9% 2.0% 3.1% 5.1% 5.7% 12.3% 19.4% 47.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.