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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+6.18vs Predicted
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2Boston College3.91+5.07vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.67+4.95vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.63+3.74vs Predicted
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5Boston University3.00+5.21vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.95+0.68vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.37+1.90vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College3.44+0.52vs Predicted
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9Yale University4.55-4.41vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25-0.36vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.97-0.44vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+1.08vs Predicted
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13University of Miami3.69-5.46vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University3.30-5.06vs Predicted
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15Harvard University1.48+0.21vs Predicted
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16Brown University3.64-8.07vs Predicted
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17Cornell University2.09-3.34vs Predicted
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18Northeastern University1.25-2.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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7.07Boston College3.910.1%1st Place
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7.95U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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7.74Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.630.1%1st Place
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10.21Boston University3.000.0%1st Place
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6.68Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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8.9Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
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8.52Connecticut College3.440.1%1st Place
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4.59Yale University4.550.2%1st Place
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9.64St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
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10.56Dartmouth College2.970.0%1st Place
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13.08U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.320.0%1st Place
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7.54University of Miami3.690.1%1st Place
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8.94Old Dominion University3.300.1%1st Place
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15.21Harvard University1.480.0%1st Place
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7.93Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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13.66Cornell University2.090.0%1st Place
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15.59Northeastern University1.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Norfleet | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| William Bowman | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Grove | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Eamon Glackin | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Cameron Fraser | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 1.4% |
| William Macdonald | 8.8% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| William Hutchings | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Peter Miller | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Graham Landy | 16.8% | 16.1% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Liberty | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Christopher Price | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 1.8% |
| Dylan Finneran | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 16.2% | 14.8% | 9.6% |
| David Hernandez | 8.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Scott Hoffmann | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Ames Lyman | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 8.8% | 13.5% | 22.3% | 30.9% |
| Lucas Adams | 5.8% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Alexander Liem | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 12.1% | 14.4% | 19.1% | 12.9% |
| Zach Shapiro | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 11.7% | 20.2% | 40.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.