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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+8.95vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.90+6.80vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.20+7.06vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+5.72vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.78+6.31vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.85+2.99vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.42+0.55vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.05-0.24vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.60+0.95vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+0.08vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston2.49-1.48vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.71+1.85vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.12-1.21vs Predicted
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14Stanford University2.89-6.12vs Predicted
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15Tulane University2.04-2.91vs Predicted
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16University of Miami2.32-5.12vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-5.30vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania2.42-6.66vs Predicted
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19Roger Williams University2.40-9.04vs Predicted
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20Connecticut College0.88-3.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.95U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.485.1%1st Place
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8.8Dartmouth College2.907.2%1st Place
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10.06Boston College2.205.2%1st Place
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9.72St. Mary's College of Maryland2.575.1%1st Place
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11.31University of Rhode Island2.783.8%1st Place
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8.99Brown University2.856.3%1st Place
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7.55Yale University2.429.9%1st Place
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7.76Harvard University3.058.0%1st Place
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9.95U. S. Naval Academy2.605.3%1st Place
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10.08Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.314.8%1st Place
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9.52College of Charleston2.496.3%1st Place
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13.85Northeastern University1.711.8%1st Place
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11.79Tufts University2.123.1%1st Place
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7.88Stanford University2.898.6%1st Place
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12.09Tulane University2.043.3%1st Place
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10.88University of Miami2.324.0%1st Place
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11.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.163.5%1st Place
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11.34University of Pennsylvania2.423.6%1st Place
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9.96Roger Williams University2.404.2%1st Place
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16.82Connecticut College0.880.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| Robert Bragg | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 1.6% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.1% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 3.5% |
| Connor Nelson | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Carmen Cowles | 9.9% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| Will Priebe | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 14.4% |
| Trevor Davis | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 4.3% |
| Reade Decker | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Thad Lettsome | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 5.9% |
| Atlee Kohl | 4.0% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.4% |
| Will Murray | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 4.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 4.2% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 12.7% | 46.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.