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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.85+7.79vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.42+9.36vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.40+6.69vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston2.49+5.55vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.42+2.58vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.90+2.56vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.20+3.34vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island2.78+3.10vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+1.19vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.60-0.35vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-1.07vs Predicted
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12Harvard University3.05-4.26vs Predicted
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13University of Miami2.32-2.00vs Predicted
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14Stanford University2.89-6.32vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-5.35vs Predicted
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16Tufts University2.12-4.33vs Predicted
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17Tulane University2.04-4.98vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-6.18vs Predicted
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19Northeastern University1.39-4.26vs Predicted
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20Connecticut College0.43-3.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.79Brown University2.856.7%1st Place
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11.36University of Pennsylvania2.423.6%1st Place
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9.69Roger Williams University2.405.6%1st Place
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9.55College of Charleston2.495.8%1st Place
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7.58Yale University2.429.1%1st Place
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8.56Dartmouth College2.907.8%1st Place
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10.34Boston College2.204.9%1st Place
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11.1University of Rhode Island2.783.5%1st Place
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10.19Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.314.5%1st Place
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9.65U. S. Naval Academy2.606.3%1st Place
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9.93U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.485.2%1st Place
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7.74Harvard University3.058.0%1st Place
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11.0University of Miami2.324.1%1st Place
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7.68Stanford University2.898.1%1st Place
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9.65St. Mary's College of Maryland2.575.2%1st Place
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11.67Tufts University2.122.9%1st Place
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12.02Tulane University2.042.9%1st Place
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11.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.163.2%1st Place
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14.74Northeastern University1.391.5%1st Place
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16.93Connecticut College0.431.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Nelson | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Jordan Bruce | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.7% |
| Noah Zittrer | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Carmen Cowles | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Robert Bragg | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 2.9% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
| Nathan Smith | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Colman Schofield | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Atlee Kohl | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 2.6% |
| Reade Decker | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 0.8% |
| Trevor Davis | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 4.6% |
| Thad Lettsome | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 5.0% |
| Will Murray | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 3.8% |
| Everett Nash | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 16.9% | 17.2% |
| Andrew Powers | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 12.6% | 47.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.