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📊 Prediction Accuracy
15.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+8.87vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.90+6.68vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.42+8.45vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.85+4.64vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.89+2.73vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.78+5.16vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.60+2.85vs Predicted
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8University of Miami2.32+2.88vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+1.03vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+1.61vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.05-3.25vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.42-4.55vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.40-3.04vs Predicted
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14Tulane University2.04-2.02vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston2.49-5.35vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College0.88+0.72vs Predicted
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17Boston College2.20-6.72vs Predicted
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18Northeastern University1.39-3.13vs Predicted
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19Tufts University2.12-7.17vs Predicted
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20St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-10.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.87U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.485.5%1st Place
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8.68Dartmouth College2.907.6%1st Place
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11.45University of Pennsylvania2.423.7%1st Place
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8.64Brown University2.857.3%1st Place
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7.73Stanford University2.897.4%1st Place
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11.16University of Rhode Island2.783.8%1st Place
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9.85U. S. Naval Academy2.604.7%1st Place
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10.88University of Miami2.323.9%1st Place
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10.03Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.2%1st Place
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11.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.163.8%1st Place
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7.75Harvard University3.057.4%1st Place
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7.45Yale University2.428.8%1st Place
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9.96Roger Williams University2.405.4%1st Place
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11.98Tulane University2.043.2%1st Place
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9.65College of Charleston2.494.7%1st Place
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16.72Connecticut College0.880.9%1st Place
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10.28Boston College2.205.0%1st Place
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14.87Northeastern University1.391.8%1st Place
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11.83Tufts University2.124.0%1st Place
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9.59St. Mary's College of Maryland2.575.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| Robert Bragg | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Jordan Bruce | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.5% |
| Connor Nelson | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Reade Decker | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 2.8% |
| Nathan Smith | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| Atlee Kohl | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 2.5% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| Will Murray | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 4.5% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Carmen Cowles | 8.8% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Thad Lettsome | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 4.9% |
| Noah Zittrer | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 12.9% | 44.6% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| Everett Nash | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 15.8% | 19.6% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.