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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.60+8.52vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.20+7.66vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.78+7.34vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+5.47vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+4.73vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.05+1.45vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.90+1.35vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.42+2.82vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.42-1.76vs Predicted
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10Stanford University2.89-2.62vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.71+2.14vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-2.69vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-1.79vs Predicted
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14Tufts University2.12-2.74vs Predicted
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15Brown University2.85-6.45vs Predicted
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16University of Miami2.32-5.83vs Predicted
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17College of Charleston2.49-7.76vs Predicted
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18Tulane University2.06-6.61vs Predicted
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19Connecticut College0.88-3.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.52U. S. Naval Academy2.606.0%1st Place
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9.66Boston College2.205.1%1st Place
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10.34University of Rhode Island2.784.3%1st Place
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9.47Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.5%1st Place
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9.73U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.485.0%1st Place
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7.45Harvard University3.058.5%1st Place
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8.35Dartmouth College2.907.1%1st Place
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10.82University of Pennsylvania2.423.7%1st Place
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7.24Yale University2.429.2%1st Place
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7.38Stanford University2.899.2%1st Place
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13.14Northeastern University1.712.6%1st Place
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9.31St. Mary's College of Maryland2.575.7%1st Place
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11.21Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.163.8%1st Place
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11.26Tufts University2.123.8%1st Place
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8.55Brown University2.856.2%1st Place
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10.17University of Miami2.324.2%1st Place
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9.24College of Charleston2.495.7%1st Place
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11.39Tulane University2.063.4%1st Place
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15.78Connecticut College0.881.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 3.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| Colman Schofield | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 8.5% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Robert Bragg | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 3.8% |
| Carmen Cowles | 9.2% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Reade Decker | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Will Priebe | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 13.4% | 14.4% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
| Will Murray | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 5.3% |
| Trevor Davis | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 5.1% |
| Connor Nelson | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Atlee Kohl | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.1% |
| Noah Zittrer | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
| Zander King | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 5.9% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 12.7% | 45.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.