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📊 Prediction Accuracy
15.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+8.56vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.42+8.80vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.89+4.69vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.05+3.33vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.90+3.32vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.85+2.60vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.20+2.84vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.04+3.34vs Predicted
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9University of Miami2.32+1.18vs Predicted
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10Yale University2.42-2.76vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-1.93vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-0.85vs Predicted
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13College of Charleston2.49-3.98vs Predicted
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14Tufts University2.12-2.89vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.60-5.75vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island2.78-5.50vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University1.71-3.92vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-8.22vs Predicted
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19Connecticut College0.43-2.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.56U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.485.7%1st Place
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10.8University of Pennsylvania2.423.5%1st Place
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7.69Stanford University2.898.4%1st Place
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7.33Harvard University3.058.3%1st Place
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8.32Dartmouth College2.906.6%1st Place
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8.6Brown University2.856.0%1st Place
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9.84Boston College2.205.9%1st Place
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11.34Tulane University2.043.4%1st Place
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10.18University of Miami2.325.3%1st Place
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7.24Yale University2.428.8%1st Place
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9.07St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.5%1st Place
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11.15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.163.2%1st Place
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9.02College of Charleston2.496.0%1st Place
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11.11Tufts University2.123.4%1st Place
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9.25U. S. Naval Academy2.605.9%1st Place
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10.5University of Rhode Island2.784.2%1st Place
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13.08Northeastern University1.712.6%1st Place
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9.78Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.5%1st Place
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16.12Connecticut College0.430.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.2% |
| Reade Decker | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 8.3% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Robert Bragg | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Connor Nelson | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 2.2% |
| Thad Lettsome | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 5.0% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 2.5% |
| Carmen Cowles | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Will Murray | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 4.3% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| Trevor Davis | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 4.6% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 3.0% |
| Will Priebe | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 12.7% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| Andrew Powers | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 12.2% | 50.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.