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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.90+7.24vs Predicted
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2University of Miami2.32+8.40vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+6.19vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.78+6.46vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.04+6.43vs Predicted
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6Stanford University2.89+1.40vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+2.56vs Predicted
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8Yale University2.42-0.73vs Predicted
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9Brown University2.85-0.39vs Predicted
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10Boston College2.20-0.29vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.12+0.02vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.42-1.11vs Predicted
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13Harvard University3.05-5.67vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.60-4.57vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-5.42vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston2.49-6.85vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University1.71-3.97vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College0.43-1.74vs Predicted
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19Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-7.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.24Dartmouth College2.907.6%1st Place
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10.4University of Miami2.323.4%1st Place
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9.19St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.0%1st Place
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10.46University of Rhode Island2.784.6%1st Place
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11.43Tulane University2.042.9%1st Place
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7.4Stanford University2.899.4%1st Place
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9.56Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.314.6%1st Place
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7.27Yale University2.429.2%1st Place
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8.61Brown University2.856.3%1st Place
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9.71Boston College2.205.3%1st Place
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11.02Tufts University2.124.5%1st Place
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10.89University of Pennsylvania2.423.7%1st Place
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7.33Harvard University3.059.2%1st Place
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9.43U. S. Naval Academy2.605.3%1st Place
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9.58U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.484.6%1st Place
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9.15College of Charleston2.496.2%1st Place
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13.03Northeastern University1.712.2%1st Place
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16.26Connecticut College0.431.1%1st Place
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11.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.163.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Bragg | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Atlee Kohl | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 3.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 3.9% |
| Thad Lettsome | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 5.8% |
| Reade Decker | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 1.6% |
| Carmen Cowles | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Connor Nelson | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 4.6% |
| Jordan Bruce | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 4.3% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Colman Schofield | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 1.6% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% |
| Will Priebe | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 10.5% | 13.9% | 12.2% |
| Andrew Powers | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 11.7% | 48.9% |
| Will Murray | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 4.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.