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📊 Prediction Accuracy
10.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+8.99vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.18+3.48vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+8.57vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.73+3.99vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.28+4.28vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.56+4.02vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.35+2.03vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.68-0.25vs Predicted
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9Stanford University3.15-3.19vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.07+4.34vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston2.38-2.07vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.29-2.65vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College2.38-3.92vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island1.61-1.38vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93-3.37vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania1.71-4.21vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University1.49-3.65vs Predicted
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18St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62-5.80vs Predicted
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19University of Miami1.93-6.86vs Predicted
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20Connecticut College0.27-2.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.99U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.174.5%1st Place
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5.48Harvard University3.1813.5%1st Place
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11.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.5%1st Place
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7.99Brown University2.736.2%1st Place
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9.28U. S. Naval Academy2.285.1%1st Place
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10.02Boston College2.564.4%1st Place
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9.03Tulane University2.356.2%1st Place
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7.75Roger Williams University2.686.8%1st Place
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5.81Stanford University3.1513.2%1st Place
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14.34Northeastern University1.071.7%1st Place
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8.93College of Charleston2.386.0%1st Place
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9.35Yale University2.295.0%1st Place
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9.08Dartmouth College2.385.7%1st Place
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12.62University of Rhode Island1.612.5%1st Place
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11.63Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.933.7%1st Place
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11.79University of Pennsylvania1.713.8%1st Place
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13.35Northwestern University1.492.4%1st Place
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12.2St. Mary's College of Maryland1.623.0%1st Place
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12.14University of Miami1.932.6%1st Place
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17.66Connecticut College0.270.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Unangst | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Justin Callahan | 13.5% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 2.7% |
| Guthrie Braun | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jack Welburn | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Hamilton Barclay | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Carlos de Castro | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 13.2% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 16.4% | 10.9% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| William Michels | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Miles Williams | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 4.9% |
| Maks Groom | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 3.0% |
| Benjamin Honig | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 3.5% |
| Shea Smith | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 8.1% |
| Felix Cutler | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 4.2% |
| Aidan Dennis | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 4.0% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 53.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.