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📊 Prediction Accuracy
5.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.38+8.04vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.38+7.33vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.18+2.62vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.29+5.22vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+6.60vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.28+3.32vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.71+4.75vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93+3.65vs Predicted
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9Brown University2.73-1.26vs Predicted
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10University of Miami1.93+2.09vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.61+2.05vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.68-4.22vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17-2.83vs Predicted
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14Boston College2.56-4.00vs Predicted
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15Stanford University3.15-9.24vs Predicted
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16Tulane University2.35-6.97vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University1.07-2.85vs Predicted
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18Northwestern University1.49-4.78vs Predicted
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19St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62-7.13vs Predicted
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20Connecticut College0.27-2.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.04College of Charleston2.385.1%1st Place
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9.33Dartmouth College2.386.0%1st Place
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5.62Harvard University3.1812.7%1st Place
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9.22Yale University2.295.5%1st Place
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11.6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.2%1st Place
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9.32U. S. Naval Academy2.285.3%1st Place
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11.75University of Pennsylvania1.712.9%1st Place
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11.65Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.933.0%1st Place
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7.74Brown University2.737.2%1st Place
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12.09University of Miami1.932.8%1st Place
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13.05University of Rhode Island1.612.1%1st Place
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7.78Roger Williams University2.688.6%1st Place
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10.17U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.174.4%1st Place
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10.0Boston College2.564.8%1st Place
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5.76Stanford University3.1512.8%1st Place
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9.03Tulane University2.355.2%1st Place
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14.15Northeastern University1.072.1%1st Place
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13.22Northwestern University1.492.5%1st Place
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11.87St. Mary's College of Maryland1.623.4%1st Place
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17.61Connecticut College0.270.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| William Michels | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Justin Callahan | 12.7% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 2.8% |
| Jack Welburn | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Benjamin Honig | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 3.1% |
| Maks Groom | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 2.6% |
| Guthrie Braun | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Dennis | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 4.1% |
| Miles Williams | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 5.9% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Daniel Unangst | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.7% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 12.8% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hamilton Barclay | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 16.9% | 11.5% |
| Shea Smith | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 7.0% |
| Felix Cutler | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 3.3% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 11.5% | 54.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.