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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.38+8.20vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.29+7.43vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.73+4.79vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.38+5.36vs Predicted
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5Boston College2.56+5.02vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.71+5.90vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island1.61+5.86vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+2.07vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.28+0.19vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.18-4.49vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+1.48vs Predicted
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12Tulane University2.35-2.92vs Predicted
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13University of Miami1.93-0.83vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.68-6.35vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.07-0.73vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-4.45vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University1.49-3.41vs Predicted
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18University of Texas1.01-2.66vs Predicted
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19Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58-6.22vs Predicted
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20Stanford University3.15-14.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.2College of Charleston2.385.8%1st Place
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9.43Yale University2.295.4%1st Place
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7.79Brown University2.738.3%1st Place
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9.36Dartmouth College2.385.0%1st Place
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10.02Boston College2.564.3%1st Place
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11.9University of Pennsylvania1.713.0%1st Place
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12.86University of Rhode Island1.611.6%1st Place
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10.07U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.174.7%1st Place
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9.19U. S. Naval Academy2.285.6%1st Place
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5.51Harvard University3.1813.8%1st Place
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12.48St. Mary's College of Maryland1.622.2%1st Place
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9.08Tulane University2.356.6%1st Place
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12.17University of Miami1.932.4%1st Place
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7.65Roger Williams University2.687.8%1st Place
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14.27Northeastern University1.072.0%1st Place
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11.55Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.8%1st Place
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13.59Northwestern University1.492.5%1st Place
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15.34University of Texas1.010.8%1st Place
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12.78Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.582.5%1st Place
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5.74Stanford University3.1511.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Guthrie Braun | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| William Michels | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Benjamin Honig | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 4.2% |
| Miles Williams | 1.6% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.2% |
| Daniel Unangst | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.9% |
| Jack Welburn | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Justin Callahan | 13.8% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Felix Cutler | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.4% |
| Hamilton Barclay | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Aidan Dennis | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 18.4% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.1% |
| Shea Smith | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 12.2% |
| Matias Martin | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 13.0% | 24.9% |
| Robert Ulmer | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.0% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 11.9% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.