← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1College of Charleston2.38+8.08vs Predicted
-
2Roger Williams University2.68+5.82vs Predicted
-
3Brown University2.73+4.94vs Predicted
-
4Harvard University3.18+1.53vs Predicted
-
5St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+7.37vs Predicted
-
6Dartmouth College2.38+3.31vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+3.36vs Predicted
-
8University of Pennsylvania2.16+2.08vs Predicted
-
9Stanford University3.15-2.89vs Predicted
-
10Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58+2.64vs Predicted
-
11University of Miami1.93+1.23vs Predicted
-
12University of Rhode Island1.61+0.81vs Predicted
-
13Northeastern University1.07+1.66vs Predicted
-
14Northwestern University1.49-0.57vs Predicted
-
15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-3.22vs Predicted
-
16Tulane University2.35-6.77vs Predicted
-
17U. S. Naval Academy2.28-7.52vs Predicted
-
18Boston College2.56-7.78vs Predicted
-
19Yale University2.29-9.43vs Predicted
-
20University of Texas1.01-4.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
9.08College of Charleston2.385.7%1st Place
-
7.82Roger Williams University2.687.5%1st Place
-
7.94Brown University2.737.5%1st Place
-
5.53Harvard University3.1814.1%1st Place
-
12.37St. Mary's College of Maryland1.622.8%1st Place
-
9.31Dartmouth College2.385.7%1st Place
-
10.36U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.174.8%1st Place
-
10.08University of Pennsylvania2.164.8%1st Place
-
6.11Stanford University3.1510.9%1st Place
-
12.64Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.583.2%1st Place
-
12.23University of Miami1.932.9%1st Place
-
12.81University of Rhode Island1.612.3%1st Place
-
14.66Northeastern University1.071.3%1st Place
-
13.43Northwestern University1.492.3%1st Place
-
11.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.6%1st Place
-
9.23Tulane University2.355.8%1st Place
-
9.48U. S. Naval Academy2.284.9%1st Place
-
10.22Boston College2.564.0%1st Place
-
9.57Yale University2.294.9%1st Place
-
15.33University of Texas1.011.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Guthrie Braun | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Justin Callahan | 14.1% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Felix Cutler | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% |
| William Michels | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Daniel Unangst | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.2% |
| Jackson McAliley | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 10.9% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Robert Ulmer | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 7.3% |
| Aidan Dennis | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.6% |
| Miles Williams | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.2% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 14.0% | 18.1% |
| Shea Smith | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 11.8% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 4.7% |
| Hamilton Barclay | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Jack Welburn | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Matias Martin | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 13.7% | 25.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.