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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.18+4.55vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58+10.50vs Predicted
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3Northwestern University1.49+10.21vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.16+6.08vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.28+4.16vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.73+1.75vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.68+0.74vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.56+2.16vs Predicted
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9University of Miami1.93+3.24vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.15-4.33vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.38-1.71vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+0.01vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17-2.66vs Predicted
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14Yale University2.29-4.59vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College0.27+2.49vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island1.61-2.96vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University1.07-2.60vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-6.30vs Predicted
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19Tulane University2.35-9.78vs Predicted
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20College of Charleston2.38-10.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.55Harvard University3.1814.2%1st Place
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12.5Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.582.9%1st Place
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13.21Northwestern University1.492.4%1st Place
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10.08University of Pennsylvania2.164.2%1st Place
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9.16U. S. Naval Academy2.284.9%1st Place
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7.75Brown University2.737.5%1st Place
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7.74Roger Williams University2.687.5%1st Place
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10.16Boston College2.564.2%1st Place
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12.24University of Miami1.932.9%1st Place
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5.67Stanford University3.1513.8%1st Place
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9.29Dartmouth College2.385.1%1st Place
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12.01St. Mary's College of Maryland1.622.9%1st Place
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10.34U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.173.6%1st Place
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9.41Yale University2.295.2%1st Place
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17.49Connecticut College0.270.7%1st Place
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13.04University of Rhode Island1.612.1%1st Place
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14.4Northeastern University1.071.8%1st Place
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11.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.6%1st Place
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9.22Tulane University2.355.5%1st Place
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9.06College of Charleston2.384.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 14.2% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Ulmer | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 4.2% |
| Shea Smith | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 7.1% |
| Jackson McAliley | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 0.7% |
| Jack Welburn | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Guthrie Braun | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Aidan Dennis | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 4.3% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 13.8% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Michels | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Felix Cutler | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 4.2% |
| Daniel Unangst | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 12.2% | 52.8% |
| Miles Williams | 2.1% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 6.3% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 17.5% | 11.9% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 3.4% |
| Hamilton Barclay | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.