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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island1.61+11.80vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.18+3.67vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+9.29vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+6.54vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.73+2.95vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.15-0.29vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.38+2.21vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+3.67vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.29+0.52vs Predicted
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10Tulane University2.28-0.39vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93+0.75vs Predicted
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12College of Charleston2.38-2.84vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.68-5.38vs Predicted
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14Boston College2.56-4.01vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.16-4.86vs Predicted
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16University of Miami1.93-3.81vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University1.07-2.65vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College0.27-0.56vs Predicted
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19U. S. Naval Academy2.28-10.01vs Predicted
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20Northwestern University1.49-6.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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12.8University of Rhode Island1.612.3%1st Place
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5.67Harvard University3.1812.9%1st Place
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12.29St. Mary's College of Maryland1.622.3%1st Place
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10.54U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.174.3%1st Place
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7.95Brown University2.737.5%1st Place
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5.71Stanford University3.1512.7%1st Place
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9.21Dartmouth College2.385.3%1st Place
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11.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.2%1st Place
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9.52Yale University2.295.0%1st Place
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9.61Tulane University2.285.1%1st Place
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11.75Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.933.0%1st Place
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9.16College of Charleston2.385.3%1st Place
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7.62Roger Williams University2.688.6%1st Place
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9.99Boston College2.565.1%1st Place
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10.14University of Pennsylvania2.164.4%1st Place
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12.19University of Miami1.932.6%1st Place
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14.35Northeastern University1.071.6%1st Place
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17.44Connecticut College0.270.5%1st Place
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8.99U. S. Naval Academy2.285.9%1st Place
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13.41Northwestern University1.492.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Williams | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 5.4% |
| Justin Callahan | 12.9% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Felix Cutler | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 3.9% |
| Daniel Unangst | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Guthrie Braun | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 12.7% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Michels | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 3.4% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 5.0% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Kelly Holthus | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Maks Groom | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 2.5% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| Jackson McAliley | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Aidan Dennis | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 3.6% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 15.4% | 13.2% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 13.4% | 52.3% |
| Jack Welburn | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Shea Smith | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 8.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.