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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.9
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.29+8.48vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston2.38+7.08vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+8.71vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.56+6.16vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.61+7.84vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.38+3.38vs Predicted
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7Northwestern University1.49+6.43vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.28+1.18vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.18-3.38vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.28-0.63vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.68-3.26vs Predicted
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12University of Miami1.93-0.01vs Predicted
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13Stanford University3.15-7.18vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93-2.42vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.16-4.77vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62-3.72vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17-6.79vs Predicted
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18Northeastern University1.07-3.76vs Predicted
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19Connecticut College0.27-1.36vs Predicted
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20Brown University2.73-11.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.48Yale University2.295.5%1st Place
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9.08College of Charleston2.385.3%1st Place
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11.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.772.9%1st Place
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10.16Boston College2.564.0%1st Place
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12.84University of Rhode Island1.612.8%1st Place
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9.38Dartmouth College2.384.7%1st Place
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13.43Northwestern University1.492.5%1st Place
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9.18Tulane University2.285.1%1st Place
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5.62Harvard University3.1813.2%1st Place
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9.37U. S. Naval Academy2.286.0%1st Place
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7.74Roger Williams University2.687.1%1st Place
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11.99University of Miami1.933.1%1st Place
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5.82Stanford University3.1512.9%1st Place
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11.58Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.932.9%1st Place
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10.23University of Pennsylvania2.165.0%1st Place
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12.28St. Mary's College of Maryland1.623.2%1st Place
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10.21U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.173.9%1st Place
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14.24Northeastern University1.072.0%1st Place
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17.64Connecticut College0.270.7%1st Place
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8.01Brown University2.737.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Pinckney | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 3.2% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Miles Williams | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 6.0% |
| William Michels | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Shea Smith | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 13.0% | 8.4% |
| Kelly Holthus | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Justin Callahan | 13.2% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Welburn | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Aidan Dennis | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 3.8% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 12.9% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Maks Groom | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 2.4% |
| Jackson McAliley | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Felix Cutler | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 4.7% |
| Daniel Unangst | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.0% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 11.8% | 14.4% | 11.6% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 12.9% | 53.6% |
| Guthrie Braun | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.