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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.18+4.42vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.28+7.10vs Predicted
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3University of Miami1.93+9.09vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.68+3.63vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.61+7.67vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.56+4.02vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.73+0.80vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.38+1.30vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston2.38-0.06vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+1.63vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.16-0.90vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University1.49+1.47vs Predicted
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13Stanford University2.72-5.40vs Predicted
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14Tulane University2.28-4.76vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17-4.86vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62-3.80vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93-5.25vs Predicted
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18Yale University2.29-8.75vs Predicted
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19Connecticut College0.27-1.40vs Predicted
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20Northeastern University1.07-5.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.42Harvard University3.1814.2%1st Place
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9.1U. S. Naval Academy2.285.2%1st Place
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12.09University of Miami1.932.4%1st Place
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7.63Roger Williams University2.687.3%1st Place
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12.67University of Rhode Island1.612.2%1st Place
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10.02Boston College2.565.1%1st Place
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7.8Brown University2.738.0%1st Place
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9.3Dartmouth College2.385.2%1st Place
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8.94College of Charleston2.385.8%1st Place
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11.63Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.772.9%1st Place
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10.1University of Pennsylvania2.164.7%1st Place
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13.47Northwestern University1.491.8%1st Place
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7.6Stanford University2.728.0%1st Place
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9.24Tulane University2.286.0%1st Place
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10.14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.175.1%1st Place
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12.2St. Mary's College of Maryland1.623.8%1st Place
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11.75Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.933.5%1st Place
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9.25Yale University2.296.0%1st Place
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17.6Connecticut College0.270.5%1st Place
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14.04Northeastern University1.072.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 14.2% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Welburn | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Aidan Dennis | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 4.5% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Miles Williams | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 5.1% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Guthrie Braun | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| William Michels | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 2.9% |
| Jackson McAliley | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Shea Smith | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 12.9% | 7.6% |
| Lucas Woodworth | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Holthus | 6.0% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Daniel Unangst | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Felix Cutler | 3.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 4.0% |
| Maks Groom | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 4.1% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 13.8% | 54.4% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 15.0% | 11.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.