← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
15.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Naval Academy2.28+8.22vs Predicted
-
2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+7.98vs Predicted
-
3Harvard University3.18+2.41vs Predicted
-
4College of Charleston2.38+5.02vs Predicted
-
5Dartmouth College2.38+3.99vs Predicted
-
6University of Pennsylvania1.71+6.01vs Predicted
-
7Boston College2.56+3.00vs Predicted
-
8Roger Williams University2.68-0.39vs Predicted
-
9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+2.44vs Predicted
-
10Northwestern University1.49+3.54vs Predicted
-
11University of Miami1.93+0.77vs Predicted
-
12Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58+0.65vs Predicted
-
13Tulane University2.28-3.63vs Predicted
-
14Stanford University2.72-6.73vs Predicted
-
15St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62-2.74vs Predicted
-
16Brown University2.73-8.27vs Predicted
-
17University of Rhode Island1.61-4.21vs Predicted
-
18Yale University2.29-8.72vs Predicted
-
19Northeastern University1.07-4.52vs Predicted
-
20University of Texas1.01-4.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
9.22U. S. Naval Academy2.285.1%1st Place
-
9.98U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.174.2%1st Place
-
5.41Harvard University3.1814.4%1st Place
-
9.02College of Charleston2.385.6%1st Place
-
8.99Dartmouth College2.386.3%1st Place
-
12.01University of Pennsylvania1.713.5%1st Place
-
10.0Boston College2.564.5%1st Place
-
7.61Roger Williams University2.687.6%1st Place
-
11.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.6%1st Place
-
13.54Northwestern University1.492.1%1st Place
-
11.77University of Miami1.933.6%1st Place
-
12.65Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.582.8%1st Place
-
9.37Tulane University2.285.0%1st Place
-
7.27Stanford University2.728.0%1st Place
-
12.26St. Mary's College of Maryland1.622.9%1st Place
-
7.73Brown University2.738.3%1st Place
-
12.79University of Rhode Island1.612.5%1st Place
-
9.28Yale University2.295.5%1st Place
-
14.48Northeastern University1.071.8%1st Place
-
15.17University of Texas1.011.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Welburn | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Daniel Unangst | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Justin Callahan | 14.4% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| William Michels | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Benjamin Honig | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Shea Smith | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 11.2% |
| Aidan Dennis | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% |
| Robert Ulmer | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% |
| Kelly Holthus | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Lucas Woodworth | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Felix Cutler | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.7% |
| Guthrie Braun | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Miles Williams | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.5% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 18.8% |
| Matias Martin | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 13.5% | 24.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.