Race 3B

psu-gorge-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

40.0%
Within 2 Positions
6.4
Avg Position Diff
10
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lily Grimshaw 21.3% 19.0% 16.3% 12.8% 11.3% 8.3% 5.6% 3.1% 1.8% 0.5%
Ashley Vincent 12.4% 12.7% 12.2% 14.6% 11.8% 12.2% 10.2% 8.0% 4.5% 1.4%
Liam Quinlan 5.4% 5.7% 6.6% 8.3% 9.2% 10.2% 15.3% 15.3% 13.5% 10.5%
Margaret Okrasinski 4.8% 5.9% 8.8% 7.8% 11.1% 12.1% 14.2% 12.1% 13.9% 9.3%
Ian Reeves 7.5% 6.9% 8.4% 9.2% 10.4% 12.9% 13.7% 13.7% 10.5% 6.8%
Tai Kami 4.8% 4.1% 4.7% 6.1% 6.2% 8.0% 11.2% 13.3% 18.6% 23.0%
Peter McGrath 20.9% 21.0% 17.7% 14.4% 12.4% 6.6% 3.7% 2.0% 1.1% 0.2%
Paul Foley 15.4% 16.1% 16.1% 14.1% 13.7% 10.0% 7.0% 4.9% 1.4% 1.3%
Ryan Fritsen 5.3% 5.5% 5.9% 8.5% 9.1% 11.7% 12.3% 15.1% 16.3% 10.3%
Laura Marshall 2.2% 3.1% 3.3% 4.2% 4.8% 8.0% 6.8% 12.5% 18.4% 36.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.