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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.20+6.22vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.07+9.82vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College3.33+3.67vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.82+4.34vs Predicted
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5Eckerd College2.91+3.05vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.97+1.92vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.85+1.39vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.81+0.45vs Predicted
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9University of Minnesota2.15+2.22vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.45+0.25vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island3.02-3.12vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin1.53+1.81vs Predicted
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13Washington College1.92-1.09vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College3.83-9.32vs Predicted
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15University of Washington1.69-2.07vs Predicted
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16Columbia University1.30-1.70vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland3.03-9.17vs Predicted
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18University of Southern California2.57-8.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.22College of Charleston3.200.1%1st Place
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11.82University of Hawaii2.070.0%1st Place
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6.67Connecticut College3.330.1%1st Place
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8.34Brown University2.820.1%1st Place
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8.05Eckerd College2.910.1%1st Place
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7.92Old Dominion University2.970.1%1st Place
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8.39Cornell University2.850.1%1st Place
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8.45Harvard University2.810.1%1st Place
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11.22University of Minnesota2.150.0%1st Place
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10.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.450.0%1st Place
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7.88University of Rhode Island3.020.1%1st Place
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13.81University of Wisconsin1.530.0%1st Place
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11.91Washington College1.920.0%1st Place
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4.68Dartmouth College3.830.2%1st Place
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12.93University of Washington1.690.0%1st Place
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14.3Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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7.83St. Mary's College of Maryland3.030.1%1st Place
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9.32University of Southern California2.570.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace Lucas | 6.9% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Hanne Nagatani | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 7.3% |
| Elizabeth Whipple | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Sky Adams | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Kaye Siemers | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Andrea Luna | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| Jennifer Borshoff | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Morgan Russom | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Jessie Olson | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 5.3% |
| Brooke Lyon | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.5% |
| Chanel Miller | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Molly Sitter | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 16.5% | 24.0% |
| Mackenzie Needham | 2.8% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 9.5% |
| Deirdre Lambert | 16.4% | 16.9% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alyce Flanagan | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 14.7% | 14.4% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 17.6% | 29.1% |
| Catherine Shanahan | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Mallory Schluter | 5.0% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.