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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston University0.97+9.73vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.09+4.12vs Predicted
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3Tufts University0.80+8.47vs Predicted
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4Olin College of Engineering0.46+8.97vs Predicted
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5Boston College1.97+2.40vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.06+0.46vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.48-2.47vs Predicted
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8Yale University1.90-1.09vs Predicted
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9Brown University1.42-0.35vs Predicted
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10Brown University1.86-2.75vs Predicted
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11Tufts University1.43-2.10vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island1.42-2.72vs Predicted
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13Tufts University0.54-0.34vs Predicted
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14Brown University1.01-3.36vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08-3.36vs Predicted
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16Fairfield University0.42-4.12vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.33-3.47vs Predicted
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18Northeastern University1.59-8.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.73Boston University0.972.5%1st Place
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6.12Roger Williams University2.099.9%1st Place
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11.47Tufts University0.802.2%1st Place
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12.97Olin College of Engineering0.462.1%1st Place
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7.4Boston College1.976.6%1st Place
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6.46Bowdoin College2.069.6%1st Place
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4.53Harvard University2.4818.4%1st Place
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6.91Yale University1.908.3%1st Place
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8.65Brown University1.425.7%1st Place
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7.25Brown University1.868.2%1st Place
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8.9Tufts University1.434.9%1st Place
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9.28University of Rhode Island1.425.1%1st Place
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12.66Tufts University0.542.1%1st Place
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10.64Brown University1.012.9%1st Place
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11.64U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.082.9%1st Place
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11.88Fairfield University0.422.7%1st Place
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13.53Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.331.2%1st Place
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9.98Northeastern University1.594.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott Mendenhall | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% |
| Oliver Stokke | 9.9% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Blake Vogel | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% |
| Peter Schnell | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 13.5% | 17.4% |
| Peter Joslin | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Sam Bonauto | 9.6% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 18.4% | 14.8% | 13.4% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Sih | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Connor Macken | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Jack Flores | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.6% |
| Henry Lee | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.6% |
| Maisie MacGillivray | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 14.1% | 14.1% |
| Sidney Moyer | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% |
| Peter McGonagle | 2.9% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% |
| Nolan Cooper | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 10.6% |
| Kevin Brooksbank | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 12.9% | 21.1% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.