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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University1.90+6.06vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.48+2.62vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.42+5.74vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.06+2.63vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.09+1.14vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.42+3.22vs Predicted
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7Tufts University0.54+5.41vs Predicted
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8Boston College1.97-0.70vs Predicted
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9Fairfield University0.42+2.86vs Predicted
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10Olin College of Engineering0.46+2.82vs Predicted
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11Tufts University1.43-1.97vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.59-2.06vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08-1.48vs Predicted
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14Brown University1.86-6.71vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.33-1.62vs Predicted
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16Tufts University0.80-4.55vs Predicted
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17Brown University1.01-6.25vs Predicted
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18Boston University0.97-7.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.06Yale University1.908.2%1st Place
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4.62Harvard University2.4816.3%1st Place
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8.74Brown University1.425.7%1st Place
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6.63Bowdoin College2.069.0%1st Place
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6.14Roger Williams University2.0910.0%1st Place
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9.22University of Rhode Island1.424.7%1st Place
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12.41Tufts University0.542.2%1st Place
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7.3Boston College1.978.1%1st Place
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11.86Fairfield University0.422.5%1st Place
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12.82Olin College of Engineering0.462.1%1st Place
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9.03Tufts University1.435.4%1st Place
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9.94Northeastern University1.594.0%1st Place
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11.52U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.082.3%1st Place
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7.29Brown University1.868.8%1st Place
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13.38Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.331.4%1st Place
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11.45Tufts University0.802.9%1st Place
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10.75Brown University1.013.5%1st Place
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10.85Boston University0.973.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Sih | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 16.3% | 16.7% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Connor Macken | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Sam Bonauto | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Oliver Stokke | 10.0% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Henry Lee | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.4% |
| Maisie MacGillivray | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 14.3% |
| Peter Joslin | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Nolan Cooper | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 10.2% |
| Peter Schnell | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 13.4% | 15.2% |
| Jack Flores | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.2% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 3.9% |
| Peter McGonagle | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Kevin Brooksbank | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 14.1% | 21.7% |
| Blake Vogel | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.2% |
| Sidney Moyer | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 4.8% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.