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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.48+3.75vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island1.42+7.38vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.86+4.36vs Predicted
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4Yale University1.90+3.07vs Predicted
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5Boston University0.97+5.84vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.06+0.71vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.09-0.68vs Predicted
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8Olin College of Engineering0.46+4.78vs Predicted
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9Boston College1.97-1.59vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08+1.70vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.59-1.07vs Predicted
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12Fairfield University0.42+0.23vs Predicted
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13Brown University1.42-4.24vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.33-0.72vs Predicted
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15Tufts University1.43-5.93vs Predicted
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16Brown University1.01-5.43vs Predicted
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17Tufts University1.20-6.88vs Predicted
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18Tufts University0.54-5.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.75Harvard University2.4815.9%1st Place
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9.38University of Rhode Island1.425.0%1st Place
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7.36Brown University1.869.1%1st Place
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7.07Yale University1.908.6%1st Place
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10.84Boston University0.973.2%1st Place
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6.71Bowdoin College2.068.2%1st Place
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6.32Roger Williams University2.099.3%1st Place
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12.78Olin College of Engineering0.462.4%1st Place
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7.41Boston College1.978.2%1st Place
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11.7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.082.2%1st Place
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9.93Northeastern University1.593.9%1st Place
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12.23Fairfield University0.422.6%1st Place
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8.76Brown University1.425.1%1st Place
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13.28Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.331.6%1st Place
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9.07Tufts University1.435.9%1st Place
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10.57Brown University1.013.0%1st Place
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10.12Tufts University1.203.6%1st Place
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12.71Tufts University0.542.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Callahan | 15.9% | 15.4% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Henry Lee | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 9.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Nathan Sih | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 5.5% |
| Sam Bonauto | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Oliver Stokke | 9.3% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Peter Schnell | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 17.5% |
| Peter Joslin | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Peter McGonagle | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 8.7% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 2.6% |
| Nolan Cooper | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 12.3% |
| Connor Macken | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Kevin Brooksbank | 1.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 14.3% | 21.9% |
| Jack Flores | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.2% |
| Sidney Moyer | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% |
| Courtland Doyle | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.9% |
| Maisie MacGillivray | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 15.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.