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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.06+5.76vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.09+4.25vs Predicted
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3Harvard University2.48+1.78vs Predicted
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4Tufts University0.54+8.69vs Predicted
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5Yale University1.90+2.09vs Predicted
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6Brown University1.42+2.45vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.43+2.03vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08+3.56vs Predicted
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9Olin College of Engineering0.46+3.96vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.42-0.64vs Predicted
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11Boston University0.97-0.15vs Predicted
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12Boston College1.97-4.43vs Predicted
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13Tufts University1.20-2.94vs Predicted
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14Fairfield University0.42-1.86vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.59-5.07vs Predicted
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16Brown University1.01-4.98vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.33-3.74vs Predicted
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18Brown University1.86-10.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.76Bowdoin College2.069.2%1st Place
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6.25Roger Williams University2.0910.5%1st Place
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4.78Harvard University2.4816.1%1st Place
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12.69Tufts University0.541.9%1st Place
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7.09Yale University1.908.4%1st Place
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8.45Brown University1.425.6%1st Place
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9.03Tufts University1.435.3%1st Place
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11.56U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.082.9%1st Place
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12.96Olin College of Engineering0.461.7%1st Place
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9.36University of Rhode Island1.425.2%1st Place
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10.85Boston University0.973.1%1st Place
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7.57Boston College1.976.6%1st Place
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10.06Tufts University1.204.0%1st Place
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12.14Fairfield University0.422.8%1st Place
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9.93Northeastern University1.594.0%1st Place
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11.02Brown University1.012.9%1st Place
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13.26Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.332.1%1st Place
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7.26Brown University1.867.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bonauto | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Oliver Stokke | 10.5% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 16.1% | 14.4% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Maisie MacGillivray | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 16.2% |
| Nathan Sih | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Connor Macken | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Jack Flores | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.1% |
| Peter McGonagle | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 9.3% |
| Peter Schnell | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 16.9% |
| Henry Lee | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.2% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.2% |
| Peter Joslin | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Courtland Doyle | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.5% |
| Nolan Cooper | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 12.2% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 2.9% |
| Sidney Moyer | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.8% |
| Kevin Brooksbank | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 15.7% | 21.4% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.