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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University4.08+8.56vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.74+4.70vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+4.79vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.64+7.11vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College4.06+4.36vs Predicted
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6University of Miami3.99+3.75vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University4.71-0.38vs Predicted
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8Boston College4.43-0.28vs Predicted
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9Boston University3.56+2.56vs Predicted
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10Yale University4.19-0.89vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin4.10-1.61vs Predicted
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12Stanford University3.90-1.51vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University4.01-3.54vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida3.49-2.48vs Predicted
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15Harvard University4.36-6.98vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College3.28-3.24vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy3.83-6.43vs Predicted
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18Brown University3.98-8.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.56Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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6.7Georgetown University4.740.1%1st Place
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7.79Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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11.11College of Charleston3.640.0%1st Place
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9.36Dartmouth College4.060.1%1st Place
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9.75University of Miami3.990.1%1st Place
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6.62Roger Williams University4.710.1%1st Place
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7.72Boston College4.430.1%1st Place
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11.56Boston University3.560.0%1st Place
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9.11Yale University4.190.1%1st Place
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9.39University of Wisconsin4.100.1%1st Place
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10.49Stanford University3.900.0%1st Place
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9.46Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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11.52University of South Florida3.490.0%1st Place
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8.02Harvard University4.360.1%1st Place
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12.76SUNY Maritime College3.280.0%1st Place
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10.57U. S. Naval Academy3.830.0%1st Place
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9.53Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Haeger | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.0% |
| Chris Barnard | 8.0% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Samuel Blouin | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Mac Mace | 3.5% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.8% |
| Sam Williams | 5.1% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.8% |
| Nicholas Voss | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% |
| Alec Anderson | 9.7% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Anne Haeger | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% |
| Ryan Pesch | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 9.7% |
| Joseph Morris | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% |
| Joseph Kutschenreuter | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% |
| Mateo Vargas | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.7% |
| Dillon Paiva | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% |
| Will Stocke | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 12.5% |
| Brendan Kopp | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
| Randall Hartranft | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 20.7% |
| Alex Ramos | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% |
| Colin Smith | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.